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    • Ngā Kōrero - Latest stories from DCM
      • 96 Ngā Kōrero - Latest stories from DCM p{ margin:10px 0; padding:0; } table{ border-collapse:collapse; } h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6{ display:block; margin:0; padding:0; } img,a img{ border:0; height:auto; outline:none; text-decoration:none; } body,#bodyTable,#bodyCell{ height:100%; margin:0; padding:0; width:100%; } .mcnPreviewText{ display:none !important; } #outlook a{ padding:0; } img{ -ms-interpolation-mode:bicubic; } table{ mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt; } .ReadMsgBody{ width:100%; } .ExternalClass{ width:100%; } p,a,li,td,blockquote{ mso-line-height-rule:exactly; } a[href^=tel],a[href^=sms]{ color:inherit; cursor:default; text-decoration:none; } p,a,li,td,body,table,blockquote{ -ms-text-size-adjust:100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust:100%; } .ExternalClass,.ExternalClass p,.ExternalClass td,.ExternalClass div,.ExternalClass span,.ExternalClass font{ line-height:100%; } a[x-apple-data-detectors]{ color:inherit !important; text-decoration:none !important; font-size:inherit !important; 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} .footerContainer .mcnTextContent a,.footerContainer .mcnTextContent p a{ color:#FFFFFF; font-weight:normal; text-decoration:underline; } @media only screen and (min-width:768px){ .templateContainer{ width:600px !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ body,table,td,p,a,li,blockquote{ -webkit-text-size-adjust:none !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ body{ width:100% !important; min-width:100% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .mcnRetinaImage{ max-width:100% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .mcnImage{ width:100% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .mcnCartContainer,.mcnCaptionTopContent,.mcnRecContentContainer,.mcnCaptionBottomContent,.mcnTextContentContainer,.mcnBoxedTextContentContainer,.mcnImageGroupContentContainer,.mcnCaptionLeftTextContentContainer,.mcnCaptionRightTextContentContainer,.mcnCaptionLeftImageContentContainer,.mcnCaptionRightImageContentContainer,.mcnImageCardLeftTextContentContainer,.mcnImageCardRightTextContentContainer,.mcnImageCardLeftImageContentContainer,.mcnImageCardRightImageContentContainer{ max-width:100% !important; 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} } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .mcnTextContent,.mcnBoxedTextContentColumn{ padding-right:18px !important; padding-left:18px !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .mcnImageCardLeftImageContent,.mcnImageCardRightImageContent{ padding-right:18px !important; padding-bottom:0 !important; padding-left:18px !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .mcpreview-image-uploader{ display:none !important; width:100% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ h1{ font-size:30px !important; line-height:125% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ h2{ font-size:26px !important; line-height:125% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ h3{ font-size:20px !important; line-height:150% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ h4{ font-size:18px !important; line-height:150% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .mcnBoxedTextContentContainer .mcnTextContent,.mcnBoxedTextContentContainer .mcnTextContent p{ font-size:14px !important; line-height:150% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .headerContainer .mcnTextContent,.headerContainer .mcnTextContent p{ font-size:16px !important; line-height:150% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .bodyContainer .mcnTextContent,.bodyContainer .mcnTextContent p{ font-size:16px !important; line-height:150% !important; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ .footerContainer .mcnTextContent,.footerContainer .mcnTextContent p{ font-size:14px !important; line-height:150% !important; } } This month’s update takes a slightly different form as we look into New Zealand’s housing crisis from different angles. Building communities where whānau are housed, connected, valued and thriving About Us Contact New Zealand’s housing crisis This month’s update takes a slightly different form as we look into New Zealand’s housing crisis from different angles. We have been talking to everyone from the decision makers, to private landlords helping solve the housing crisis, to those impacted by homelessness – the people we work with at DCM each and every day. Parties agree on supply, differ on other solutions New Zealand’s main political parties are continuing to debate solutions to the country’s housing crisis as new research shows that bipartisan housing intensification law changes are long overdue. Research by the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission, Te Waihanga, reveals that house prices have accelerated since 1980 because New Zealand cities stopped expanding and didn’t develop enough infill housing. Both Labour and National supported legislation in December 2021 allowing buildings of up to three storeys in cities without any need for resource consent. Houses in the Lyall Bay suburb of Wellington, New Zealand. Photographer: Mark Coote/Bloomberg. CC BY. But the parties disagree on other solutions to the housing crisis, and National plan to reduce the bright-line test from 10 years to two, and revisit interest deductibility rule changes for property investors, should they be elected in 2023. National Party Housing Spokesperson Chris Bishop says advice from officials is that the bright-line and interest deductibility changes put pressure on the private rental market. Housing Minister Megan Woods disputes this. “There is no evidence that those measures are putting pressure on the market,” says Woods. “We know that rather than leaving the rental market, multiple property owners account for 36.2% of activity (Q3 2022), close to the long-term average since 2017 of 36.5%. “It’s important to note the changes were made to discourage speculators and even the playing field for first home buyers.” In early 2018, the Labour-led government also banned foreign speculators from buying housing in New Zealand, but Bishop says they were never a big part of the market. “Labour for quite a long time didn’t want to deal with the underlying issue, which is supply. They have this thing around foreign buyers, and they have this thing around landlords – who they call speculators – when the actual issue is just supply,” Bishop says. Supply is where the parties agree, though the bipartisan housing intensification law changes are facing opposition from local councils, and National leader Christopher Luxon has also hinted at revisiting the rules. Bishop says National is committed to housing intensification. “The importance of this is that it gives certainty to the market. To developers, and people doing housing, that there’s now a shared commitment across the two main political parties that housing supply is really important.” Woods agrees. “That’s why this Government brought in the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD) to allow more housing in areas where people want to live. In urban centres close to work, schools, public transport, and other amenities. “Similarly, the legislation that Parliament passed last year with near-unanimity, and acceleration of the NPS-UD, allows for more housing types and density to be built to meet the needs of New Zealanders.” Despite the progress made with private builds, public housing has lagged, with emergency housing a dire prospect for some, as revealed in Rotorua after an investigation by TVNZ’s Sunday programme. Labour has built 10,328 additional public homes since coming into office to date, but with 26,664 applicants on the housing register as of 30 June 2022, permanent housing remains out of reach for many. Bishop says he plans to eliminate housing waitlists altogether, but that it must be done through supply.  “The ultimate answer to everything related to housing in New Zealand is more houses. Everything comes back to that,” says Bishop. “You don’t have enough houses for people to buy, they end up renting. When you have more people renting – and less rental properties – rents go up. Some people can’t afford those rents, they end up on the waitlist. The waitlist goes up – there’s not enough social housing – people end up in motels.” Kiwibank has predicted that New Zealand will have a housing surplus at some stage over the next 12 months while building activity outstrips demand. Bishop says he laughed out loud when he heard the Kiwibank prediction. “My response is we will have a surplus when no one lives in a car and no one lives in a motel. And everyone who needs a social house can get one.” Woods looks to the record level of consents made – 50,736 dwellings consented in the year to June 2022, compared to 30,453 in the year to June 2017 – as significant progress. “We’re also mindful that a consent is not a house until it is completed. We’re closely monitoring building activity, particularly as there are headwinds due to global supply issues and other economic factors,” says Woods. “There is more work still to be done to ensure that the right types of dwellings are built where they are needed, and that they are affordable – whether for homeowners or renters.” This article was written by DCM's Kaiarataki Pūrongo Matthew Mawkes as part of a journalism course at Massey University. Special thanks to Lee-Ann Duncan for the newswriting tips. <!-- --> The landlords helping solve the housing crisis Matthew Ryan has been in the news a lot lately – you might have read about him on Stuff talking about property prices, or heard him on his fortnightly Hot Property podcast on Newstalk ZB. Often referred to as a ‘mega landlord’, what may surprise many is that Matthew is helping solve New Zealand’s housing crisis by providing properties to DCM’s Aro Mai Housing First team. Matthew Ryan is our largest landlord, currently providing housing for 17 taumai. Matthew was born in Wellington in 1964. He has a lot of love for the city, where he has spent most of his life. He grew up in a working-class family, working at McDonald’s in Porirua from 1981-1985, where he made $4.34 an hour. “I’ve probably come from a bit of a dysfunctional family,” Matthew reflects. “It was a hard upbringing. I guess in adversity sometimes you have to rise above it. You can go two ways with things. You can decide to be a part of it, or you can make it work for you.” By 1987, Matthew had brought his first property with a friend. In the late 1980s, he relocated to London where he sold real estate. “It was a recession time in the United Kingdom, but it was fascinating living in a big city like that – all the opportunity,” Matthew says. “I was in my early 20s. I arrived with $5,000 – about £2,500 – and I ended up buying three properties by the end of it. I wish I had them now of course!” Back in New Zealand Matthew continued working in real estate – becoming a bona fide property expert in the process – and his focus is now on Wellington. “It’s a bit easier to manage houses where you live,” he says. Matthew is Aro Mai Housing First’s largest landlord, currently providing housing for 17 taumai. Our Housing First team started by taking a few properties, and when that worked out, Matthew offered more – in particular in the Hutt Valley, where a large number of taumai have been housed. “The relationship blossomed,” Matthew says. “Because it makes sense. “It’s taken a while to understand how it all works. Like a lot of things, it evolves as it goes, but I now have a better understanding of how Aro Mai works, and who’s responsible for what.” It takes support from DCM, Emerge Aotearoa as a CHP (Community Housing Provider), and property owners, to make Aro Mai Housing First work. And there are challenges, such as obtaining insurance, which infuriates Matthew. “If an insurance company is prepared to insure a building on the basis that I pick John and Mary Smith, they’re happy enough to rent on that basis, but if I give it to Emerge Aotearoa, and they pick the same John and Mary Smith, they go, ‘No we don’t want them’. “That has to be discrimination. And that is not on, really.” But Matthew says Housing First is an attractive option for landlords, because not only are they helping solve the housing crisis by renting to people who have experienced homelessness, properties are managed for them, and they can benefit from changes to tax deductibility rules. Matthew would like to see the government step in to address the insurance issue. “If they can’t force their hand they probably need to say OK, well, we need to assist here.” In the meantime, Matthew continues to offer properties to DCM's Aro Mai Housing First team. Our vision is for a community where whānau are housed, connected, valued, and thriving. In the middle of a housing crisis, we need many more landlords just like Matthew who are truly making that vision become a reality. If you would like to know more about how you can provide homes for the people we are supporting out of homelessness, please get in touch with our Kaiārahi Whiwhinga (Property Procurement Officer) Shaun. For more information about how Housing First works, visit our website and check out the story of Dev. <!-- --> Challenging perceptions about homelessness The phone call to police was simple, but urgent – “Someone’s dead on the side of the street.” So began John’s day rough sleeping in Wellington, as social workers from DCM woke him up, the police close by their side. It was a turning point for John, who is now housed in a property provided by Wellington landlord Matthew Ryan through Aro Mai Housing First, a government-funded initiative that helps people who have experienced homelessness for at least a year get into permanent housing. Aged only 27, John has experienced a decade of living rough, and challenges the perceptions people have about homelessness, which he says is not always about addictions and mental health – though these issues have crossed his path too. For John, homelessness came about as a direct result of being kicked out of home. “Family life was rough. Especially due to the religious abuse of my mother,” says John. “I got disowned two weeks before I turned 16.” John, 27, pictured in Te Aro Park. He is now housed after a decade of homelessness through the Aro Mai Housing First initiative that recognises that it’s easier for people to deal with complex issues if they have a stable place to live. Raised Jehovah’s Witness, Martin’s teenage rebellion saw him take to the streets of Whangarei. He started self-harming and was on a suicide watch for four years. “I’ve been pissed on, I’ve been shat on, I’ve been spat on. Been abused – physically and emotionally.”  Wanting a fresh start, John hitchhiked to Wellington where the lure of free coffee and internet brought him to DCM. John was able to access emergency housing and, through DCM's Aro Mai Housing First team, a permanent place of his own. “I have my own bed, a couch, a TV. I’ve never physically owned any of this stuff. My prized possession has always been my skateboard. Living inside, it’s kind of like – what am I going to do now?” John’s key focus is on his health, and he is currently going through very serious medical treatments. He looks forward to doing some training and getting into work, helping others his age who have also experienced homelessness. “Years ago I was hustling with a little sign out and this guy yells at me – ‘Get a fucking job!’ An hour or so later he comes back, sits down beside me, and we chat. I explained my history and he had suggestions. He found out I had done the yards. I said bro – don’t judge a book by its cover.” We are relieved that John has a whare of his own, where he can recuperate and focus on his wellbeing. To support people like John, we need many more staff, especially for our large and growing Aro Mai Housing First team. Not only does this team procure properties, they provide the wraparound support needed to ensure those properties are maintained, and that taumai are able to thrive. Do you know anyone who would love to work for our amazing organisation? Visit our website for more info. <!-- --> Support DCM We call the people we work with taumai, meaning to settle. This reflects the journey we set out on together – to become settled, stable and well. Nāku te rourou, nāu te rourou, ka ora ai te iwi. With your basket and my basket, the people will thrive. <!-- --> Copyright © 2022 DCM. All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: DCMPO Box 6133Marion SqWellington, Wellington 6011 New ZealandAdd us to your address book Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.
      • Accepted from DCM alerts archive by feedreader
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      • Porirua, Wellington Region, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)

    • WMC Cinema Night, 28 Aug 2021
      • The WMC Time Cinema evening on Sat 28 Aug 2021.191 Sutherland Road, Lyall Bay, Wellington Time4:00pm happy hour BYO for a4:30pm start in the theatre (to enable everyone to get home nice and early).5:30-6:45pm usual Chicken roast meal with Dessert. … Continue reading →
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      • Lyall Bay, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, New Zealand/Aotearoa (OpenStreetMap)

    • Queens Drive/Sutherland Road to View Road Steps
      •  FIND THESE STEPS – Between 254 and 256 Queens Drive at Sutherland Road and from the top at Numbers 7 and 19 View Road. The Tsunami warning posted on the roadway nearby.The grand view of Lyall Bay from near the top of the stairs.You find a waiting octopus waiting as your reward at the top.   
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      • Queens Drive, Houghton Bay, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, 6023, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)

    • Metlink school bus routes for start of Term 1 2020
      • Morning services 713 – Miramar – Kilbirnie – Newtown – Basin Schools             7:45  Miramar-DarlingtonRd (124)             8:36  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 715 – Lyall Bay – Kilbirnie – Hataitai – Basin Schools             8:00  LyallBay-HungerfordRd (2)                8:28  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 725 – Houghton Bay – Southgate – Island Bay – Basin Schools             7:45  HgtnBayRd nr Cave                           8:31  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 726 – Island Bay – Owhiro Bay – Berhampore – Wellington High School             7:55  Esplanade opp Beach                        8:25  MasseyUni-WallaceSt (opp)    Daily             8:05  Island Bay-ReefSt at ShorlandPk        8:25  MasseyUni-WallaceSt (opp)    Daily 734 – Brooklyn – Kingston – Vogeltown – Basin Schools             7:50  OhiroRd at Bretby                             8:10  AdelaideRd at Basin (12)         Daily 736 – Karori (Wrights Hill) – Kelburn – Wellington College             7:40  KaroriMall-BeauchampSt                   8:13  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily             7:50  GippsSt at Cooper (sch)                     8:20  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 737 – Karori – Kelburn – Wellington College & Wellington High School             7:43  Karori-AllingtonRd                            8:29  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily             7:45  Karori-AllingtonRd                            8:29  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily             7:47  Karori-AllingtonRd                            8:33  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 743 – Wilton – Wadestown – Thorndon Colleges & Basin Schools             7:55  Wilton-SurreySt                                8:35  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily             8:00  Wilton-SurreySt                                8:40  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 746 – Khandallah – Ngaio – Basin Schools – St Patrick’s College             7:35  HuttRd at Rangiora                           8:25  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 764 – Karori – Wellington College             7:55  Karori-AllingtonRd                            8:43  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 768 – Mairangi – Wellington, St Patrick’s & Rongotai Colleges             7:50  Mairangi-NorwichSt                          8:22  BasinRes (sch)                        Daily 770 – Kowhai Park – Kingston – Vogeltown – Basin & Kilbirnie Colleges             7:50  KowhaiPk-MitchellSt                         8:15  AdelaideRd at Basin (12)         Daily Afternoon services 718 – Wellington High School – Newtown – Seatoun           15:30  TaranakiSt (217)                              16:00  SeatounPk-HectorSt               Daily 719 – Wellington High School – Kilbirnie – Miramar North           15:30  WgtnHighSch (sch)                          15:56  ParkRd at Rotherham (86)       Daily 726 – Wellington High School – Berhampore – Owhiro Bay – Island Bay           15:25  WgtnHighSch (sch)                          15:44  IslandBay-ReefSt opp ShorlandPk                           Daily           15:30  WgtnHighSch (sch)                          16:10  IslandBay-ReefSt opp ShorlandPk                           Daily 734 – Brooklyn – Kingston – Vogeltown – Basin Schools           15:36  AdelaideRd at Basin (13)                 15:50  Brooklyn-A                             Daily 740 – Wellington College – Kelburn – Karori           15:30  TaranakiSt at AbelSmith                  15:58  Karori-KaroriRd                       Daily           15:31  TaranakiSt at AbelSmith                  15:59  Karori-KaroriRd                       Daily           15:32  TaranakiSt at AbelSmith                  16:00  Karori-KaroriRd                       Daily 742 – Basin Schools – Miramar Heights           15:40  BasinRes (sch)                                 16:18  MiramarShops-A                    Daily 769 – St Patrick’s & Wellington Colleges, Wellington High School – Northland – Wilton           15:38  TaranakiSt at AbelSmith                  16:10  Wilton-SurreySt                      Daily 770 – Basin Schools – Vogeltown – Kingston – Kowhai Park           15:49  AdelaideRd at Basin (13)                 16:29  KowhaiPk-MitchellSt              Daily
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      • Wellington High School, Taranaki Street, Mount Cook, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, 6011, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)

    • Centre Open Triples Winners
      • Great work by Bruce Henderson (s), Grant Wakefield and Chis Hueston - winners of the Centre Open Triples over last weekend. After a strong start in the final J'ville held off a comeback by the Lyall Bay triple skipped by Brent Stubbins to win on the last. Well done also to Rob Ashton (s), Rob Veale and Sy Baker who reached the semi-finals - almost making it an all J'ville final.
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      • Johnsonville Bowling Club, Frankmoore Avenue, Johnsonville, Wellington, 6037, New Zealand/Aotearoa

    • REBLOG Croaking Cassandra: Further thoughts on the airport Part 1
      • Shortly after the release of the cost-benefit analysis of the proposed Wellington airport runway extension, prepared by Sapere for Wellington International Airport Limited (WIAL) I wrote a post in which I posed the question “If they build it, what if no one comes?” Since that post, I’ve been to one of the open day/public consultation meetings, have read and thought about the documents more thoroughly, and have read various pieces written by others, including the new one by Ian Harrison that I linked to yesterday.  I have also had some engagement with Sapere and WIAL, which has helped to sharpen my sense of what the issues really are. The cost-benefit analysis is not a business case document.  It has been prepared in support of a resource consent application.  What I hadn’t known when I wrote earlier (and was advised of by Sapere) is that  under the RMA the applicants will need to be able to demonstrate national benefits to get permission to fill in some more of Lyall Bay, to extend the runway. I’m sure that the cost-benefit analysis is not serving as a business case for Infratil, the major shareholder in WIAL.  But since this project is generally accepted to be viable only if there is significant public funding, and any such funding can only be defended if there would be material net public benefits , the Sapere cost-benefit analysis is by default serving as something of a business case at present.  If the numbers don’t stack up, neither the Wellington region councils nor central government should be putting any money into the project (beyond WIAL’s resources, and of course Wellington City Council is a 34 per cent shareholder in WIAL). In this post, I will offer a few thoughts on the plausibility of the assumed increase in international passenger traffic to/from New Zealand as a result of the extension. Extending the runway at Wellington airport could materially reduce the cost of some forms of international travel in and out of Wellington. If long-haul flights were offered,  lower costs could result by reducing the time taken (eg. by eliminating the one hour flight to Auckland and the stopover time in Auckland, it might reduce the total time for a trip to Singapore (and onward points) by perhaps 2.5 hours).  For those travelling anyway, those gains could be material –  time has an opportunity cost.  In addition, by allowing long-haul aircraft to fly into Wellington, the direct cost of international airfares in and out of Wellington could also be expected to fall –  quite materially, if the numbers Sapere quotes are correct.  Those gains apply not just to long haul routes themselves –  a Wellington-Singapore direct fare should be materially cheaper than the current options via Auckland, Christchurch or Sydney –  but also to trans-Tasman flights, as the longer runway would also facilitate used of wide-bodied aircraft on trans-Tasman routes (as for examples, the Emirates flights between Christchurch and Australia). Of course, simply building the runway extension does not bring about any of these savings.  They depend on airlines finding it profitable to run additional services.  And although international air travel has increased enormously to and from New Zealand in recent decades, provincial New Zealand is littered with the dreams of local authorities (airport owners) with aspirations to have an international airport.  New Zealand has plenty of attractive places, but one main international airport. Wellington, of course, has a significant business market, and business travel is typically much more profitable for airlines than leisure travel. And unlike the predominantly leisure travel into Christchurch, the Wellington business travel probably isn’t very seasonal.  So the idea the long haul flights into Wellington could be viable isn’t self-evidently absurd.  But, on the other hand, the economic cost of making such flights technically feasible – lengthening the runway –  is far higher than in many other places.  At $1m a metre, it is considerably more costly than putting some asphalt on some more grassy fields in Christchurch.  Wellington isn’t a natural place for a long-haul international airport. The WIAL proposal uses modelling by international consultants to estimate likely growth in traffic and passenger numbers with and without the extension.  There are some questions about the baseline forecast, including for example around the potential future impact of climate change mitigation policies.  But my main interest is the difference between these two –  the increase in traffic that would result from the runway extension itself. It is hard to pick one’s way through all the numbers, but the bottom line appears to be that the cost-benefit analysis is done on the basis that by 2060 there will be an additional 400000 foreign international passengers per annum arriving in Wellington, and an additional 200000 New Zealand international departures per annum through Wellington[1].  Many of these are people who would otherwise have travelled via Auckland or Christchurch, so that the net gain in international travel numbers to New Zealand is around 200000, with an additional 100000 or so New Zealanders travelling abroad.    Many of the gains are forecast to occur early in the period.  Thus, by 2035, the analysis assumes an annual net gain to New Zealand of around 125000 international visitors (relative to the no-extension baseline). How plausible is this?    The various reports highlight the phenomenon of “market stimulation” –  putting on new air services tends to stimulate total passenger numbers.  That shouldn’t be surprising.  Not only do point-to-point services lower the cost of visiting a particular place, but marketing expenditure raises awareness of the destinations concerned. On the other hand, one can’t just take for granted that such market stimulation will render long haul flights into and out of Wellington viable.  After all, there are plenty of cities around the world with few or no long haul flights.  Closer to home, Rotorua is an attractive tourist destination and can’t sustain direct flights even to Sydney. What of Wellington?  The modelling exercise involves lowering the cost of foreigners visiting Wellington –  to some extent artificially, because the costs of providing the longer runway are not passed back in additional charges to those using long haul flights –  but not the cost of them visiting New Zealand (since Auckland and Christchurch fares would stay largely unchanged).   Any long-haul flights into Wellington will almost certainly be from cities that already have flights to Auckland (and possibly to Christchurch).  Is it really plausible that an additional 200000 people per annum (or even 125000 by 2035) will visit New Zealand simply because they can fly direct to Wellington, or (in respect of trans-Tasman traffic) fly into Wellington more cheaply than previously? Perhaps I’m excessively negative on Wellington.    I reckon it is a nice place for a weekend, but not a destination that many long haul leisure travellers would choose.  What is there to do after the first two days?  And there is little or nothing else in the rest of the bottom of the North Island.   So it is plausible that lower fares resulting from additional competition would attract more weekend visitors from Australia. But no one is going to come for a weekend in Wellington all the way from China or Los Angeles.  And since the principal attractions of New Zealand are either in the upper North Island or the South Island, how many  more people are likely to come to New Zealand just because they can choose Wellington as the gateway for their New Zealand holiday? And what of New Zealanders travelling abroad?  Since the costs of Wellingtonians (and others in the nearby areas) getting to desirable destinations abroad would be cheaper if there were direct flights from Wellington, it is credible that the total number of New Zealand overseas travellers would increase.  In fact, whereas the modelling suggests twice as many new foreign visitors as new New Zealand international travellers (and in total there are twice as many international visitors to New Zealand as travelling New Zealanders), in this case I wonder if the putative new  routes would not be more attractive to New Zealanders than to foreigners?  One can illustrate the point with a deliberately absurd example: put on long haul international flights to Palmerston North, and they would be quite attractive to people in Manawatu (much easier/cheaper to get to desirable places like New York or London) but not very attractive at all to foreigners (for whom Manawatu has few attractions). But even if wide-bodied aircraft flights from Wellington did make overseas travel more attractive to New Zealanders, is the effect really large enough to be equivalent to one more trip every year for every 10 people in Wellington and its hinterland?  And would the effect still be remotely that large if passengers (users) had to cover the cost of providing the longer runway (which should really be the default option)? Reasonable people can differ on these issues. In my discussions, a lot seems to turn on just how attractive people think Wellington is.  I’m pretty sceptical that long haul tourists will ever come to New Zealand to see cities.  Perhaps if one is thinking of visiting New Zealand cities, Wellington is more attractive than our other cities, but even if so Wellington still has the feel of being a logical gateway to nowhere much.  It isn’t an obvious starting point for a “whole of New Zealand” trip, or a North Island one (given that most of the attractions are further north), or a South Island one.   So I’m left (a) sceptical that the net addition to visitor numbers to New Zealand will be as large as the analysis assumes even if the users don’t bear the costs, and (b) suspecting that the boost to the demand for New Zealanders to travel abroad might be greater than the boost to the demand for foreigners to visit New Zealand. On that latter point, the experts point out that they assume that the new long haul services will be provided by foreign airlines, and that the evidence of recent new air services to New Zealand provided  by foreign airlines is that they disproportionately boost the number of foreigners travelling.  I have no reason to doubt the numbers, but I still wonder if the same result would apply to routes into Wellington.  New flights into Auckland are often the first direct flights offered into New Zealand (as a whole) from that city or country.   My impression is that “New Zealand” is the destination marketed to long haul passengers.  But direct flights to/from Wellington do more to open up the world (more cheaply) to Wellingtonians than they do to open New Zealand to foreigners.   And if so, would the foreign airlines be keen to offer the Wellington services at all? This post has been about the sort of increased passenger numbers that might be expected if the runway was extended.  In some sense, that should be largely an issue for WIAL.  If they can extend their capacity and attract sufficient users at a price that covers the cost of capital of WIAL and its shareholders, the rest of us might not care much (I’m not much bothered about environmental issues, although my family enjoys the waves at Lyall Bay beach).    But the cost-benefit analysis being used to lure ratepayers and taxpayers into funding much of the proposed expansion suggests that there are very large economic benefits to New Zealand which cannot be captured directly by airlines or airports.  I think they are wrong, and my next post will explain why. [1] From tables 5.11 and 5.12 in the InterVISTAS report.
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