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    • RE-BLOG KEITH JOHNSON: CentrePort Proposals to Scour Wellington Berths and Dredge Wellington Harbour Mouth need proper Multi-Criteria Appraisal
      • JUST BIGGER IS BETTER AS FAR AS TRAFFIC IS CONCERNED? By Keith Johnson While road transport increasingly grinds to a halt in Wellington and road rage is becoming common, partly consequent on Wellington City Council’s dog-in-the-manger approach to investment in roads, the Bigger is Better philosophy is receiving ringing endorsement from local authorities with respect to the aviation and maritime shipping industries. Much has been published on this website about Wellington International Airport’s Runway Extension Project – including an article by Dr Sea Rotmann which draws attention to the massive contribution of air travel worldwide to CO2 emissions. Maritime transport is also a major emitter. In this respect, Wellington Regional Council should be insisting upon a proper Multi-Criteria Assessment of the proposed dredging of Wellington Harbour by CentrePort. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/79692673/CentrePort-reveals-details-of-plans-to-dredge-7km-channel-in-Wellington-Harbour A Multi-Criteria Assessment would cover all dimensions of a major public investment: Cost-Benefit Analysis [including the Business Case] Economic Impacts Environmental and Safety Impacts Social and Distributional Impacts With the whole to be concluded with an over-arching summary of redlines and trade-offs. Looking at the current situation, the parallels between the CentrePort proposal and the Runway Extension Project are very interesting: Doubts about financial viability Optimistic multiplier-based ‘economic’ rather than business case justification Concern over who will eventually pay [ferry customers, GWC ratepayers] etc. Environmental concerns The one glaring difference is that Wellington ratepayers are not being asked to pay directly in the case of the Port. SOME ISSUES ON THE PORT PROPOSAL THAT NEED PROPER APPRAISAL Viability of Log Traffic growth as a major driver [with its associated road transport issues] http://maritimealumni.ac.nz/alumni/whats-the-latest/ The silt is potentially toxic: http://www.sandandgravel.com/news/article.asp?v1=4444 The cost could be anywhere between $20 million and $40 million: http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/265225/dredging-plan-for-wellington-port The proposal could have adverse effects on recreational and commercial fishing, the recreational use of Wellington Harbour and artesian water pressure and purity in Eastbourne: http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=76457 Wellingtonians will pay through their rate contributions to the Greater Wellington Council and possibly also through higher ferry fares to and from the South Island: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/79886817/harbour-dredge-could-push-up-cook-strait-ferry-prices-shipping-federation Any possible relationship between the dumping of silt and its migration towards the unstable deep sea submarine canyons in Cook Strait seems unconsidered: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm Plus a couple of challenges on ‘shifting sands’ by ‘Old Saltie’ Jim Mikoz: Dredging, dumping, and the moving river of shingle and Why Centreport’s dumping sites are in the wrong places CentrePort’s Channel Deepening Project http://www.centreportbigpicture.co.nz/project-overview CentrePort is applying for consents to deepen the harbour to allow for ships with draughts of up to 14.5metres at the harbour entrance and the Thorndon Container Wharf. These consents would provide CentrePort the flexibility to dredge in one stage or a series of stages, allowing the port to deepen the channel only as required, in response to the size of ships actually visiting New Zealand. An extensive optimisation exercise was undertaken to identify the most cost effective design delivering the least amount of dredging for the best operational outcome. As Wellington is a naturally deep harbour, no deepening is required in the main harbour basin and the overall volume proposed to be removed is less than at other ports to achieve the same outcomes. At the harbour entrance consents are being sought that would allow the port to remove up to 6.0 million cubic metres of seabed sediment. The proposed disposal site is off Fitzroy Bay, in water approximately 50 metres deep.  This site is a refinement of the existing consented disposal area. The main container berth and northern approach at Thorndon Container Wharf would also be deepened, with placement of that material, up to 270,000 cubic metres, in deeper water near the berth. Alternatives for disposal have, and will continue to be considered [hopefully].
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      • Thorndon, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)


    • REBLOG Croaking Cassandra: Further thoughts on the airport Part 1
      • Shortly after the release of the cost-benefit analysis of the proposed Wellington airport runway extension, prepared by Sapere for Wellington International Airport Limited (WIAL) I wrote a post in which I posed the question “If they build it, what if no one comes?” Since that post, I’ve been to one of the open day/public consultation meetings, have read and thought about the documents more thoroughly, and have read various pieces written by others, including the new one by Ian Harrison that I linked to yesterday.  I have also had some engagement with Sapere and WIAL, which has helped to sharpen my sense of what the issues really are. The cost-benefit analysis is not a business case document.  It has been prepared in support of a resource consent application.  What I hadn’t known when I wrote earlier (and was advised of by Sapere) is that  under the RMA the applicants will need to be able to demonstrate national benefits to get permission to fill in some more of Lyall Bay, to extend the runway. I’m sure that the cost-benefit analysis is not serving as a business case for Infratil, the major shareholder in WIAL.  But since this project is generally accepted to be viable only if there is significant public funding, and any such funding can only be defended if there would be material net public benefits , the Sapere cost-benefit analysis is by default serving as something of a business case at present.  If the numbers don’t stack up, neither the Wellington region councils nor central government should be putting any money into the project (beyond WIAL’s resources, and of course Wellington City Council is a 34 per cent shareholder in WIAL). In this post, I will offer a few thoughts on the plausibility of the assumed increase in international passenger traffic to/from New Zealand as a result of the extension. Extending the runway at Wellington airport could materially reduce the cost of some forms of international travel in and out of Wellington. If long-haul flights were offered,  lower costs could result by reducing the time taken (eg. by eliminating the one hour flight to Auckland and the stopover time in Auckland, it might reduce the total time for a trip to Singapore (and onward points) by perhaps 2.5 hours).  For those travelling anyway, those gains could be material –  time has an opportunity cost.  In addition, by allowing long-haul aircraft to fly into Wellington, the direct cost of international airfares in and out of Wellington could also be expected to fall –  quite materially, if the numbers Sapere quotes are correct.  Those gains apply not just to long haul routes themselves –  a Wellington-Singapore direct fare should be materially cheaper than the current options via Auckland, Christchurch or Sydney –  but also to trans-Tasman flights, as the longer runway would also facilitate used of wide-bodied aircraft on trans-Tasman routes (as for examples, the Emirates flights between Christchurch and Australia). Of course, simply building the runway extension does not bring about any of these savings.  They depend on airlines finding it profitable to run additional services.  And although international air travel has increased enormously to and from New Zealand in recent decades, provincial New Zealand is littered with the dreams of local authorities (airport owners) with aspirations to have an international airport.  New Zealand has plenty of attractive places, but one main international airport. Wellington, of course, has a significant business market, and business travel is typically much more profitable for airlines than leisure travel. And unlike the predominantly leisure travel into Christchurch, the Wellington business travel probably isn’t very seasonal.  So the idea the long haul flights into Wellington could be viable isn’t self-evidently absurd.  But, on the other hand, the economic cost of making such flights technically feasible – lengthening the runway –  is far higher than in many other places.  At $1m a metre, it is considerably more costly than putting some asphalt on some more grassy fields in Christchurch.  Wellington isn’t a natural place for a long-haul international airport. The WIAL proposal uses modelling by international consultants to estimate likely growth in traffic and passenger numbers with and without the extension.  There are some questions about the baseline forecast, including for example around the potential future impact of climate change mitigation policies.  But my main interest is the difference between these two –  the increase in traffic that would result from the runway extension itself. It is hard to pick one’s way through all the numbers, but the bottom line appears to be that the cost-benefit analysis is done on the basis that by 2060 there will be an additional 400000 foreign international passengers per annum arriving in Wellington, and an additional 200000 New Zealand international departures per annum through Wellington[1].  Many of these are people who would otherwise have travelled via Auckland or Christchurch, so that the net gain in international travel numbers to New Zealand is around 200000, with an additional 100000 or so New Zealanders travelling abroad.    Many of the gains are forecast to occur early in the period.  Thus, by 2035, the analysis assumes an annual net gain to New Zealand of around 125000 international visitors (relative to the no-extension baseline). How plausible is this?    The various reports highlight the phenomenon of “market stimulation” –  putting on new air services tends to stimulate total passenger numbers.  That shouldn’t be surprising.  Not only do point-to-point services lower the cost of visiting a particular place, but marketing expenditure raises awareness of the destinations concerned. On the other hand, one can’t just take for granted that such market stimulation will render long haul flights into and out of Wellington viable.  After all, there are plenty of cities around the world with few or no long haul flights.  Closer to home, Rotorua is an attractive tourist destination and can’t sustain direct flights even to Sydney. What of Wellington?  The modelling exercise involves lowering the cost of foreigners visiting Wellington –  to some extent artificially, because the costs of providing the longer runway are not passed back in additional charges to those using long haul flights –  but not the cost of them visiting New Zealand (since Auckland and Christchurch fares would stay largely unchanged).   Any long-haul flights into Wellington will almost certainly be from cities that already have flights to Auckland (and possibly to Christchurch).  Is it really plausible that an additional 200000 people per annum (or even 125000 by 2035) will visit New Zealand simply because they can fly direct to Wellington, or (in respect of trans-Tasman traffic) fly into Wellington more cheaply than previously? Perhaps I’m excessively negative on Wellington.    I reckon it is a nice place for a weekend, but not a destination that many long haul leisure travellers would choose.  What is there to do after the first two days?  And there is little or nothing else in the rest of the bottom of the North Island.   So it is plausible that lower fares resulting from additional competition would attract more weekend visitors from Australia. But no one is going to come for a weekend in Wellington all the way from China or Los Angeles.  And since the principal attractions of New Zealand are either in the upper North Island or the South Island, how many  more people are likely to come to New Zealand just because they can choose Wellington as the gateway for their New Zealand holiday? And what of New Zealanders travelling abroad?  Since the costs of Wellingtonians (and others in the nearby areas) getting to desirable destinations abroad would be cheaper if there were direct flights from Wellington, it is credible that the total number of New Zealand overseas travellers would increase.  In fact, whereas the modelling suggests twice as many new foreign visitors as new New Zealand international travellers (and in total there are twice as many international visitors to New Zealand as travelling New Zealanders), in this case I wonder if the putative new  routes would not be more attractive to New Zealanders than to foreigners?  One can illustrate the point with a deliberately absurd example: put on long haul international flights to Palmerston North, and they would be quite attractive to people in Manawatu (much easier/cheaper to get to desirable places like New York or London) but not very attractive at all to foreigners (for whom Manawatu has few attractions). But even if wide-bodied aircraft flights from Wellington did make overseas travel more attractive to New Zealanders, is the effect really large enough to be equivalent to one more trip every year for every 10 people in Wellington and its hinterland?  And would the effect still be remotely that large if passengers (users) had to cover the cost of providing the longer runway (which should really be the default option)? Reasonable people can differ on these issues. In my discussions, a lot seems to turn on just how attractive people think Wellington is.  I’m pretty sceptical that long haul tourists will ever come to New Zealand to see cities.  Perhaps if one is thinking of visiting New Zealand cities, Wellington is more attractive than our other cities, but even if so Wellington still has the feel of being a logical gateway to nowhere much.  It isn’t an obvious starting point for a “whole of New Zealand” trip, or a North Island one (given that most of the attractions are further north), or a South Island one.   So I’m left (a) sceptical that the net addition to visitor numbers to New Zealand will be as large as the analysis assumes even if the users don’t bear the costs, and (b) suspecting that the boost to the demand for New Zealanders to travel abroad might be greater than the boost to the demand for foreigners to visit New Zealand. On that latter point, the experts point out that they assume that the new long haul services will be provided by foreign airlines, and that the evidence of recent new air services to New Zealand provided  by foreign airlines is that they disproportionately boost the number of foreigners travelling.  I have no reason to doubt the numbers, but I still wonder if the same result would apply to routes into Wellington.  New flights into Auckland are often the first direct flights offered into New Zealand (as a whole) from that city or country.   My impression is that “New Zealand” is the destination marketed to long haul passengers.  But direct flights to/from Wellington do more to open up the world (more cheaply) to Wellingtonians than they do to open New Zealand to foreigners.   And if so, would the foreign airlines be keen to offer the Wellington services at all? This post has been about the sort of increased passenger numbers that might be expected if the runway was extended.  In some sense, that should be largely an issue for WIAL.  If they can extend their capacity and attract sufficient users at a price that covers the cost of capital of WIAL and its shareholders, the rest of us might not care much (I’m not much bothered about environmental issues, although my family enjoys the waves at Lyall Bay beach).    But the cost-benefit analysis being used to lure ratepayers and taxpayers into funding much of the proposed expansion suggests that there are very large economic benefits to New Zealand which cannot be captured directly by airlines or airports.  I think they are wrong, and my next post will explain why. [1] From tables 5.11 and 5.12 in the InterVISTAS report.
      • Accepted from Guardians of the Bays posts
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      • lyall-bay
      • Lyall Bay, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, New Zealand/Aotearoa (OpenStreetMap)


    • Travelling In Style
      • Wellington’s Airport Flyer service has been given a $4 million facelift, and we think it’s money well spent. The Airport Flyer fleet now has nine new NZ-built buses, featuring leather coach-style seats, extra leg-room and air-conditioning. Of course, the new [...]
      • Tagged as:
      • airport
      • Wellington International Airport, Coutts Street, Rongotai, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, 6023, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)


    • Now We’re Flying!
      • We’ve had a busy week here at Snapper, rolling out the ability to pay for your bus fare by Snapper on Valley Flyer and Airport Flyer buses. The first Snapper-enabled bus left the Waterloo depot in the early hours of last Sunday morning and by lunchtime every Valley Flyer bus had been fitted out with Snapper equipment.
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      • Lower Hutt, Wellington, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)


    • Snapper welcomes 8 new Merchants.
      • We are happy to announce 8 new Reload and Acceptor Merchants that have come on-board in the past week strengthening our network in the suburbs: Bay Foodkmarket, Island bay; Bay Discount Tobacconist, Kilbirnie; Molesworth Goods, Thorndon; Anitas Bookshop, Featherston St   Adding to the Subway Launch the following sites will be using Snapper for its queue busting abilities: Subway Featherston St,
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      • Thorndon, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)


    • Seriously good.
      • There's a great line in a Simpsons episode (well there's a plethora of them really) when C. Montgomery Burns is viewing the less-than-flattering nude portrait of him which Marge has painted. In his typically non-plussed manner, he states "I don't know much about art, but I know what I hate; and I don't hate this."Now, I don't profess to know much about art either, but Adagio-Seriously Sophisticated Circus had me enthralled and not thinking about hate one bit. From the opening minute, when each of the performers was introduced to the audience in a sequence which had us in a quandry as to which performer to focus on, to the mirror-image closure, I was amazed, amused, and just plain entertained in a way that I'm not generally accustomed to. But I liked it. A lot.Without being able to properly dissect the performance, to verbalise the nuances of the techniques deployed, or even identify the performers correctly, I'll at least have a crack and break it down to a Monty Burns-esqe critique. Adagio combines live music, comedy, pantomime, dance and most of all (as the name implies) amazing feats of gymnastic ability on an array of 'equipment' (chairs, swings, ropes etc). The two main protagonists were a diminutive male and a blonde female whose pure strength and incredible poise was so immense and impressive that you would think it looked so easy, but then you'd digest what they were doing and imagine trying to do it yourself, summising with a mental "no way!". This was my second experience at Downstage, after the also brilliant Strike earlier this year, and if the quality of these two shows is an indicator of the fare on offer, then I can see myself making more regular visits. And I'd recommend that everyone should get along and experience Adagio... it's been extended, so there's no reason not too. Might even make it back for seconds myself.Thanks to Markus at Downstage.Brett Kennedy
      • Tagged as:
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      • Hannah Playhouse, 12, Cambridge Terrace, Mount Victoria, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, 6011, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)


    • Adagio extended till 1 Nov
      • Good news! Downstage and Awkward Productions are proud to announce that ADAGIO’s season at the theatre is extended by popular demand till 1 November. The show, which takes circus out of the tent and into the theatre, features a blend of syncopated circus acts and music from Jonathan Crayford. Directed by Deborah Pope, ADAGIO received excellent feedback from both audiences and reviewers.Downstage also introduced a family pass for the 6.30 pm performances from Monday till Wednesday and the 3 pm matinee on Saturday 25 October. The family ticket is available at a price of $100 at the Downstage box office and on the phone and includes admission for two adults and two children.ADAGIO is a combination of physical theatre, circus, contemporary dance, music and comedy. With Mason West, Rowan Heydon-White, Angela Green, Jenny McArthur and Asalemo Tofete the show features five highly skilled physical performers, unique in their approach to theatre making, joined by New Zealand Symphony Orchestra double bassist Vicki Jones and jazz musician Rosie Langabeer.ADAGIO is playing at Downstage Theatre till 1 November, Monday to Wednesday at 6.30 pm and Thursday to Saturday at 7.30 pm, with an afternoon matinee at 3 pm on Saturday 25 October.Ticket prices range from $20 to $42. Tickets can be purchased online at www.downstage.co.nz, by phone at (04) 801 6946 or in person at Downstage’s box office.For more information on the show please visit www.downstage.co.nz/adagio“Adagio offers a beautifully crafted hour of existential physical theatre. Perfect spring fare."John Smythe, Theatreview.com“What a circus, what a show. Go see!”Laurie Atkinson, The Dominion Post“By far the most entertaining seventy minutes I had experienced at the theatre in a very long time. Just superb.” Texture.co.nz
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      • Hannah Playhouse, 12, Cambridge Terrace, Mount Victoria, Wellington, Wellington City, Wellington, 6011, New Zealand (OpenStreetMap)


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